Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
